Sunday HQ
Week 1 · Sun 12:00 PM ET
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Research Board
BEST / WORST from the live factor engine: coverage/script proxy, volume, environment, weather, injury, OL starters. Admin weights change the overall. Not a PFF coverage rank.
GOOD PLAYER ≠ GOOD MATCHUP ≠ GOOD PROJECTION ≠ GOOD BET. Coverage is a script proxy. OL is an ESTIMATE desk module.
6.5
ESTIMATESHOOTOUT · OL 7.8 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
7Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 28.3 vs opp 21.3.
Volume
7Implied team total 28.3.
Environment
9SHOOTOUT. P(DET win) 71% from DK home spread -7. Total 49.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof FIXED. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
8Interior + Sewell support rush + play-action.
0.0
ESTIMATEQB DOWNGRADE · OL 4.2 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
4Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 19.5 vs opp 23.0.
Volume
4Implied team total 19.5.
Environment
3QB DOWNGRADE. P(PIT win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 42.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5QB downgrade is the environment story, not weather. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
0Unavailable Week 1 while recovering from a knee injury. Does not replace Tua.
OL starters
3Emergency QB caps designed pass pro value.
6.2
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.3 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
7Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 28.8 vs opp 18.8.
Volume
8Implied team total 28.8.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(LAC win) 79% from DK home spread -10. Total 47.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof FIXED. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Home favorite indoor. OL lean for Herbert / RB.
5.9
ESTIMATESHOOTOUT · OL 6.4 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
7Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 27.0 vs opp 23.5.
Volume
7Implied team total 27.0.
Environment
9SHOOTOUT. P(CIN win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 50.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5No owner or verified weather flag. Do not assume clean conditions. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Pass-game OL lean. Not a 2025 rank recycled as fact.
5.9
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.8 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 25.5 vs opp 22.0.
Volume
6Implied team total 25.5.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(IND win) 39% from DK home spread 3.5. Total 47.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof UNKNOWN. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Run-game OL lean for Henry / Lamar.
5.7
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.9 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 25.8 vs opp 22.8.
Volume
6Implied team total 25.8.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(NYG win) 40% from DK home spread 3. Total 48.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5Live NWS ingest PENDING. Meadowlands wind is often material — mark UNKNOWN until pulled. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Favorite on the road. OL is a lean, not a lock.
5.5
ESTIMATESHOOTOUT · OL 6.6 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 23.5 vs opp 27.0.
Volume
5Implied team total 23.5.
Environment
9SHOOTOUT. P(CIN win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 50.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5No owner or verified weather flag. Do not assume clean conditions. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Highest-total road game. OL is not coverage.
5.4
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 5.8 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 25.3 vs opp 22.3.
Volume
6Implied team total 25.3.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(CAR win) 40% from DK home spread 3. Total 47.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5Live NWS ingest PENDING. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
6Road favorite. OL lean for designed rush.
5.3
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.4 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
5Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 23.0 vs opp 21.5.
Volume
5Implied team total 23.0.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(HOU win) 45% from DK home spread 1.5. Total 44.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof UNKNOWN. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
7Slight favorite on the road.
5.3
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.0 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
5Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 22.5 vs opp 24.0.
Volume
5Implied team total 22.5.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(MIN win) 55% from DK home spread -1.5. Total 46.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof FIXED. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
6Road indoor. OL is not a coverage grade.
5.3
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 7.2 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 25.0 vs opp 19.5.
Volume
6Implied team total 25.0.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(PHI win) 67% from DK home spread -5.5. Total 44.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5Live NWS ingest PENDING. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
8Favorite script + OL supports Saquon volume.
5.1
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 6.1 · weather NONE
Coverage / script proxy
5Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 21.5 vs opp 23.0.
Volume
5Implied team total 21.5.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(HOU win) 45% from DK home spread 1.5. Total 44.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
8Roof UNKNOWN. Weather is not the limiter.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
6Retractable roof UNKNOWN.
4.7
ESTIMATEQB DOWNGRADE · OL 5.6 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
5Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 23.0 vs opp 19.5.
Volume
5Implied team total 23.0.
Environment
3QB DOWNGRADE. P(PIT win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 42.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5QB downgrade is the environment story, not weather. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
6Home OL. Feature store is LOW SAMPLE.
4.4
ESTIMATEWEATHER RISK · OL 5.0 · weather SIGNIFICANT
Coverage / script proxy
6Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 24.5 vs opp 16.0.
Volume
6Implied team total 24.5.
Environment
3WEATHER RISK. P(JAX win) 75% from DK home spread -8.5. Total 40.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
2Outdoor EverBank. Heat + storm timing can cap passing volume, increase short-area rushing, and create delay risk. Treat CLE/JAX passing overs as weather-taxed until a verified hourly forecast is wired (Phase 2 live ingest PENDING).
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
5Heat/storm game. OL does not cancel weather tax.
4.3
ESTIMATENEUTRAL · OL 4.6 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
4Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 19.5 vs opp 25.0.
Volume
4Implied team total 19.5.
Environment
6NEUTRAL. P(PHI win) 67% from DK home spread -5.5. Total 44.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5Live NWS ingest PENDING. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
4Road dog. Negative script can cut designed rush.
4.0
ESTIMATEQB DOWNGRADE · OL 4.2 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
4Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 19.5 vs opp 23.0.
Volume
4Implied team total 19.5.
Environment
3QB DOWNGRADE. P(PIT win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 42.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5QB downgrade is the environment story, not weather. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
8NO KNOWN LIMITATION (not “healthy”).
OL starters
3Emergency QB caps designed pass pro value.
0.0
ESTIMATEQB DOWNGRADE · OL 4.2 · weather UNKNOWN
Coverage / script proxy
4Not a CB/PFF grade. Script proxy from implied team total 19.5 vs opp 23.0.
Volume
4Implied team total 19.5.
Environment
3QB DOWNGRADE. P(PIT win) 61% from DK home spread -3.5. Total 42.5. Not a trained win model.
Weather
5QB downgrade is the environment story, not weather. Impact UNKNOWN until hourly lands.
Injury context
0Atlanta's named starter was added to the injury report after Thursday practice and is ruled out. Michael Penix Jr. is also out, so Cooper Rush starts at Pittsburgh.
OL starters
3Emergency QB caps designed pass pro value.